Still on BRexit

on

BUT BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO. IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST TWO YEARS — IF NOT MORE — TO SORT OUT THE HISTORIC EXIT FROM THE 28-COUNTRY BLOC.

THE UK HAS BEEN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION (AND ITS PRECURSORS) SINCE 1973, AND THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT NOW FACES THE GARGANTUAN TASK OF UNRAVELING DECADES OF LEGISLATION, TREATIES AND DEALS BETWEEN THE UK AND THE EU, THE SINGLE BIGGEST MARKET IN THE WORLD.

THE LEGAL FINE PRINT

The EU referendum vote itself is not a legal notification. The formal announcement to the EU is expected to happen at a meeting of the European Council (the EU’s heads of government) on Monday, June 27.

ONCE THAT HAPPENS, IT WILL TRIGGER ARTICLE 50 OF THE 1973 TREATY OF ROME, WHICH GIVES BOTH SIDES TWO YEARS TO REACH AN AGREEMENT.

HOWEVER, BECAUSE THE UK IS SO INTRICATELY ENTWINED WITH THE EU, IT COULD TAKE MANY YEARS LONGER THAN THAT.

LIAM FOX, A PRO-LEAVE BRITISH MP, ESTIMATES IT WOULD TAKE UP TO 2019 TO RENEGOTIATE POLICY FROM ISSUES ON IMMIGRATION TO TRADE, SECURITY AND MORE.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE EU?

THE UK IS THE FIRST BONA FIDE COUNTRY TO LEAVE. THE CLOSEST THING PRIOR TO THIS IS WHEN GREENLAND, WHICH IS PART OF DENMARK, LEFT IN 1985. (THE REST OF DENMARK STAYED.)

GREECE HAS THOUGHT SERIOUSLY ABOUT IT THOUGH. THAT WOULD BE GREXIT (ANOTHER STORY ALTOGETHER). BUT THINK ABOUT THE PRECEDENT IT SETS. WITH THE UK’S DECISION TO LEAVE, OTHER EU COUNTRIES MIGHT START EYEING THE DOOR TOO AND THAT’LL HAVE HUGE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE ECONOMY AND STABILITY.

JAN TECHAU, DIRECTOR OF FOREIGN POLICY THINK TANK CARNEGIE EUROPE, SAID THE EU IS SURE TO PLAY HARDBALL WHEN IT COMES TO NEGOTIATING THE UK’S EXIT.

“FIRST OFF, THEY WILL TRY TO PLAY IT HARD VIS-A-VIS THE UK. IT’S QUITE CLEAR THEY WILL HAVE TO UNIFY AROUND A POSITION THAT WILL MAKE IT QUITE PAINFUL FOR THE UK TO NEGOTIATE THIS EXIT SO THAT EVERYBODY SEES WHAT HAPPENS TO YOU IF YOU TRY TO DO THE SAME THING,” TECHAU SAID.

WHILE THAT’S A SHORT-TERM TACTIC, THE EU WILL ALSO NEED TO FIND A DEEPER SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEMS PLAGUING THEM — THE MOST PRESSING OF WHICH IS THE REFUGEE CRISIS.

Culled from Trendsnation

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